October Oscar Prediction

Since last month's predictions, The Last Station finally found a distributor, Inglourious Basterds did big at the box office, A Single Man drew high praise for Colin Firth and Julianne Moore, Bright Star opened to less than the rapturous applause it needed, people began talking about Up in the Air and Precious confirmed itself as the one to watch, thanks to a win at Toronto. With those occurences, here's how I think the Oscar nominations may be heading:

Picture:
Amelia
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglouious Basterds
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious
Up
Up in the Air

Director:
Lee Daniels - Precious
Clint Eastwood - Invictus
Peter Jackson - The Lovely Bones
Rob Marshall - Nine
Jason Reitman - Up in the Air

Actor:
George Clooney - Up in the Air
Daniel Day-Lewis - Nine
Colin Firth - A Single Man
Morgan Freeman - Invictus
Christopher Plummer - The Last Station

Actress:
Helen Mirren - The Last Station
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Gabourey Sidibe - Precious
Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia
Hilary Swank - Amelia

Supporting Actor:
Matt Damon - Invictus
Richard Kind - A Serious Man
Alfred Molina - An Education
Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds

Supporting Actress:
Marion Cotillard - Nine
Judi Dench - Nine
Vera Farmiga - Up in the Air
Mo'Nique - Precious
Julianne Moore - A Single Man

Adapted Screenplay:
An Education
Invictus
The Lovely Bone
Precious
Up in the Air

Original Screenplay:
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
The Tree of Life
Up

Cinematography:
Amelia
Bright Star
The Lovely Bones
Nine
The Tree of Life

Editing:
The Hurt Locker
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious

Art Direction:
Amelia
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Tree of Life

Costume Design:
Bright Star
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria

Make Up:
District 9
The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus
Star Trek

Original Score:
Amelia
Brothers
Public Enemies
The Tree of Life
Up

Sound Mixing:
Avatar
A Christmas Carol
Nine
Star Trek
Up

Sound Editing:
Avatar
A Christmas Carol
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

Visual Effects:
2012
Avatar
Star Trek

Animated Feature:
Coraline
Ponyo
Up

My Emmy Winner Predictions

The Primetime Emmys are handed out tomorrow night, so I thought I'd have a got at predicting the winners. Sometimes its easy to guess whom the voters will pick, put more often the winners can seem completely random. There are some questions about this year's ceremony. Will Mad Men win the big prize again? How big of a sweep will 30 Rock have? With Jeremy Piven not in the running, can Neil Patrick Harris finally win an Emmy?

Drama Series:
Big Love
Breaking Bad
Damages
Dexter
House
Lost
Mad Men
Will Win: Mad Men, although I have a sinking suspicion House may take the prize.
Should Win: Mad Men. The only other nominee that's even close to its brilliance is fellow AMC drama, Breaking Bad.

Actor, Drama:
Simon Baker - The Mentalist
Gabriel Byrne - In Treatment
Bryan Cranston - Breaking Bad
Jon Hamm - Mad Men
Michael C. Hall - Dexter
Hugh Laurie - House
Will Win: I think they'll want to award the star of a break out network show, and give the prize to Simon Baker
Should Win: Jon Hamm and Bryan Cranston were both great this season, but I'd give it to Hamm.

Actress, Drama:
Glenn Close - Damages
Sally Field - Brothers & Sisters
Mariska Hargitay - Law & Order: SVU
Holly Hunter - Saving Grace
Elisabeth Moss - Mad Men
Kyra Sedgwick - The Closer
Will Win: Glenn Close - the Emmys do love their repeat winners
Should Win: January Jones! Oh, she's not nominated. Mary McDonnell! Whoops, again not nominated. Elisabeth Moss, just for her scene with Vincent Kartheiser in the second season finale.

Suppoting Actor, Drama:
Christian Clemenson - Boston Legal
Michael Emerson - Lost
William Hurt - Damages
Aaron Paul - Breaking Bad
William Shater - Boston Legal
John Slattery - Mad Men
Will Win: Hurt or Emerson seem like the obvious choices, which means they'll bestow the award to... William Shatner!
Should Win: Any of the men, aside from the Boston Legal boys, would be deserving of the award, but I'd give it to Aaron Paul for expanding the depth of his character.

Supporting Actress, Drama:
Rose Byrne - Damages
Hope Davis - In Treatment
Cherry Jones - 24
Sandra Oh - Grey's Anatomy
Dianne Wiest -In Treatment
Chandra Wilson - Grey's Anatomy
Will Win: I don't know. I'll just guess Dianne Wiest because she won last year
Should Win: I don't really have a preference, though I wouldn't mind a make up Emmy for Sandra Oh.

Comedy Series:
30 Rock
Entourage
Family Guy
Flight of the Conchords
How I Met Your Mother
The Office
Weeds
Will Win: Barring some revolt against the series' domination, 30 Rock takes this in a cake walk.
Should Win: It's a toss up between 30 Rock and The Office.

Actor, Comedy:
Alec Baldwin - 30 Rock
Steve Carell - The Office
Jermaine Clement - Flight of the Conchords
Jim Parsons - The Big Bang Theory
Tony Shaloub - Monk
Charlie Sheen - Two and a Half Men
Will Win: Alec Baldwin again, though an upset by Jim Parsons wouldn't surprise me.
Should Win: Steve Carrell! The Michael Scott Paper Company plotline was beautifully acted.

Actress, Comedy:
Christina Applegate - Samantha Who?
Toni Collette - The United States of Tara
Tina Fey - 30 Rock
Julia Louis-Dreyfus - The New Adventures of...
Mary Louise Parker - Weeds
Sarah Silverman - The Sara Silverman Program
Will Win: Tina Fey - everyone still loves her.
Should Win: Christina Applegate. I'm going to miss Samantha.

Supporting Actor, Comedy:
Jon Cryer - Two and A Half Men
Kevin Dillion - Entourage
Neil Patrick Harris - How I Met Your Mother
Jack McBrayer - 30 Rock
Tracy Morgan - 30 Rock
Rainn Wilson - The Office
Will Win: NPH seems like the obviouc pick, but again, it is the Emmys, so I'm going to predict Jon Cryer.
Should Win: Neil Patrick Harris!

Supporting Actress, Comedy:
Kristin Chenoweth - Pushing Daisies
Jane Krakowski - 30 Rock
Amy Poehler - SNL
Elizabeth Perkins - Weeds
Kristen Wiig - SNL
Vanessa Williams - Ugly Betty
Will Win: Tough call, but I'll go with Amy Poehler for her final season on the show.
Should Win: Any of the ladies would be deserving, but I really want Kristin Chenoweth to pick up the trophy.

A New Month = New Oscar Predictions

Since my last predictions, the release dates for a number of potential contenders (The Wolf Man, Shutter Island, The Tempest) were pushed back to 2010, and the releas date for Terrence Malick's new feature, The Tree of Life was moved forward to this year. In addition, Tarantino's latest effort, Inglourious Basterds, has become a hit. Will that translate into multiple nominations for the film? Maybe. So far the only two locks for nominations are Up for Animated Feature and Meryl Streep in Julie & Julia for Best Actress, but that won't stop me from trying to predict these things.

Picture:
Amelia
Bright Star
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious
Up in the Air

Director:
Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
Lee Daniels - Precious
Clint Eastwood - Invictus
Peter Jackson - The Lovely Bones
Rob Marshall - Nine

Actor:
Javier Bardem - Biutiful
George Clooney - Up in the Air
Daniel Day-Lewis - Nine
Morgan Freeman - Invictus
Christopher Plummer - The Last Station

Actress:
Abbie Cornish - Bright Star
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Saorise Ronan - The Lovely Bones
Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia
Hilary Swank - Amelia

Supporting Actor:
Matt Damon - Invictus
Jude Law - Sherlock Holmes
Alfred Molina - An Education
Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds

Supporting Actress:
Marion Cotillard - Nine
Judi Dench - Nine
Helen Mirren - The Last Station
Mo'Nique - Precious
Susan Sarandon - The Lovely Bones

Adapted Screenplay:
An Education
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Precious
Up in the Air

Original Screenplay:
Biutiful
Bright Star
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Up

Cinematography:
Amelia
The Hurt Locker
The Lovely Bones
Nine
The Tree of Life

Editing:
The Hurt Locker
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Public Enemies

Art Direction:
Agora
Amelia
Invictus
Nine
Public Enemies

Costume Design:
Agora
Bright Star
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria

Make Up:
Inglouious Basterds
Sherlock Holmes
Star Trek

Original Score:
Bright Star
Brothers
The Lovely Bones
Public Enemies
Up

Sound Mixing:
Avatar
A Christmas Carol
Nine
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

Sound Editing:
Avatar
A Christmas Carol
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Up

Visual Effects:
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek

Animated Feature:
Coraline
Ponyo
Up

First Oscar Predictions of the Season

With Oscar season starting in a few months, it's time to start making some predictions. The expansion of the Best Picture category from five to ten nominees makes it more interesting to predict this year. Will it lead to more films from earlier in the year being nominated? I doubt it. It's still early in the year, since the "prestige" pictures don't start arriving until October, but as of right now, here's the direction I could see the Oscar nominations going.

Picture:
Amelia
Bright Star
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Invictus
The Last Station
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious
Shutter Island

Director:
Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
Lee Daniels - Precious
Clint Eastwood - Invictus
Peter Jackson - The Lovely Bones
Rob Marshall - Nine

Actor:
Javier Bardem - Biutiful
Paul Bettany - Creation
Daniel Day-Lewis - Nine
Morgan Freeman - Invictus
Christopher Plummer - The Last Station

Actress:
Abbie Cornish - Bright Star
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Saorise Ronan - The Lovely Bones
Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia
Hilary Swank - Amelia

Supporting Actor:
Matt Damon - Invictus
Richard Kind - A Serious Man
Alfred Molina - An Education
Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds

Supporting Actress:
Jennifer Connelly - Creation
Judi Dench - Nine
Helen Mirren - The Last Station
Mo'Nique - Precious
Rachel Weisz - The Lovely Bones

Adapted Screenplay:
An Education
Invictus
The Last Station
The Lovely Bones
Precious

Original Screenplay:
Biutiful
Bright Star
The Hurt Locker
A Serious Man
Up

Cinematography:
Amelia
Bright Star
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Shutter Island

Editing:
The Hurt Locker
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Shutter Island

Art Direction:
Invictus
Nine
Public Enemies
Shutter Island
The Tempest

Costume Design:
Amelia
Bright Star
Nine
Public Enemies
The Tempest

Make Up:
Sherlock Holmes
Star Trek
The Tempest

Original Score:
Avatar
Biutiful
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
Public Enemies
Up

Sound Mixing:
Avatar
A Christmas Carol
Invictus
Nine
Star Trek

Sound Editing:
Avatar
A Christmas Carol
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Up

Visual Effects:
Avatar
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
Star Trek

Animated Feature:
Coraline
Ponyo on the Cliff
Up

Emmy Nomination Predictions

The nominations for the Emmy Awards are announced this Thursday morning (July 16th), so I though I'd give a try as guessing the nominees in the major series and acting categories. This year the categories have expanded to fit six nominees, which would suggest some surprises, but it's the Emmys, so the nominees will ultimately remain boring.

Drama Series:
24
Boston Legal
Damages
House
Lost
Mad Men

Essentially the same line-up as last year, except switching out Dexter for 24, which wasn't eligible last year. Most people are predicting True Blood to make the cut, but I have my doubts, seeing as it would have to jump the hurdles of being both a genre series and extremely gay. I consider both Breaking Bad and In Treatment as runners-up, which might take the place of either 24 or Lost.

Lead Actor, Drama:
Gabriel Byrne - In Treatment
Bryan Cranston - Breaking Bad
Jon Hamm - Mad Men
Michael C. Hall - Dexter
Hugh Laurie - House
James Spader - Boston Legal

I simply guessed the same group of men as last year, but of those men, I consider only Hamm and Hall to be locks. Michael Chiklis, Kiefer Sutherland and Simon Baker have just as much chance at getting nods as the other four men. I also wouldn't be completely shocked by a surprise sympathy nomination for Patrick Swayze.

Least Actress, Drama:
Patricia Arquette - Medium
Glenn Close - Damages
Mariska Hargitay - Law & Order: SVU
Holly Hunter - Saving Grace
Sally Field - Brothers & Sisters
Kyra Sedgwick - The Closer

Look, I'm happy for the fact television is providing middle-aged actresses with prominent roles, and the Emmys are willing to notice them, but can we get a better group of nominees. The two best leading lady performances were given by Mary McDonnell and January Jones, yet I fear both will go unrecognized. McDonnell's snub will sting the most, seeing as it will be the fifth year in a row she'll go unnominated for one of the best performances on television ever.

Supporting Actor, Drama:
Jeremy Davies - Lost
Michael Emerson - Lost
William Hurt - Damages
John Mahoney - In Treatment
William Shatner - Boston Legal
John Slattery - Mad Men

Rather than going for more interesting performances by lesser known actors - Aaron Paul, Lucian Msamati, Ryan Kwanten, Michael Cudlitz - the Emmy voters will likely go for bigger named stars. I'm pretty sure about all my guesses, except for Davies, who could just as easily be replaced with John Larroquette or Josh Holloway.

Supporting Actress, Drama:
Candice Bergen - Boston Legal
Marcia Gay Harden - Damages
Katherine Heigl - Grey's Anatomy
Sandra Oh - Grey's Anatomy
Dianne Wiest - In Treatment
Chandra Wilson - Grey's Anatomy

For the most part, this is a boring line-up, and as much as I like Oh and Wilson, I don't feel they should be nominated year after year. If one of these actresses were to be passed over, I fear it would be Harden, who actually gave the best supporting performance this past television season, but then, who would replace her - Hope Davis, Rachel Griffiths, Alison Bill, Cherry Jones, Jane Kaczmarek?

Comedy Series:
30 Rock
The Big Bang Theory
Entourage
How I Met Your Mother
The Office
Two and a Half Men

I highly doubt CBS will garner three nods in this category, but what are the other options? Pushing Daisies was ignored last year, despite a slew of other nominations, so I'm guessing it won't get a nod this year. The only other serious choices would be Flight of the Concords or a Desperate Housewives return, though it would be a total kick if the Emmy voters went outside the box and gave a nomination to something like Chuck or Parks & Recreation.

Lead Actor, Comedy:
Alec Baldwin - 30 Rock
Steve Carrell - The Office
Jim Parsons - The Big Bang Theory
Lee Pace - Pushing Daisies
Tony Shaloub - Monk
Charlie Sheen - Two and a Half Men

This category should to be a lot more fun than it is. Sheen and Shaloub again? I'm just hopin Pace can hold on to that nomination, and not be replaced by Johnny Galecki, which I believe might happen. I usually like Galecki, and loved him on Roseanne, but he seems to just get steam-rolled by the rest of the Big Bang cast. My biggest fear is one of the Entourage leading men making it into this category. That's scary just thinking about it.

Lead Actress, Comedy:
Christina Applegate - Samantha Who?
America Ferrara - Ugly Betty
Tina Fey - 30 Rock
Julia Louis-Dreyfus - The Old Adventures of New Christine
Mary-Louise Parker - Weeds
Amy Poehler - Parks & Recreation

A typical group of ladies, with the addition of Poehler for her first starring role. I wonder if Toni Collette might make an appearance, replacing Applegate or Ferrara. What about the Desperate Housewives? With a rejuvenated season (though, really only the first half seemed fresh) might one of them get a nod. If so, expect it to be Felicity Huffman, though Eva Longoria Parker was the real best-in-show. Plus, there's always Debra Messing waiting in the wings.

Supporting Actor, Comedy:
Jon Cryer - Two and a Half Men
Kevin Dillon - Entourage
Neil Patrick Harris - How I Met Your Mother
Tracy Morgan - 30 Rock
Jeremy Piven - Entourage
Rainn Wilson - The Office

It would be nice if John Krasinski finally got nominated, but I doubt it will ever happen, since he's the cute guy on the series. Actually do we even need this category, considering we all know Piven will win for the fourth time in a row? Piven can pretty much guarantee winning the award until either he takes his name out of submission (the respectable thing) or the show ends.

Supporting Actress, Comedy:
Judy Davis - The Starter Wife
Kristin Chenoweth - Pushing Daisies
Amy Poehler - Saturday Night Live
Jean Smart - Samantha Who?
Holland Taylor - Two and a Half Men
Vanessa Williams - Ugly Betty

This is probably the most wide open category with several serious contenders. Besides these women, you also have Conchata Ferrell, Jenna Fischer, Kristin Wiig, Dana Delaney, Swoozie Kurtz, Jaime Pressly, Elizabeth Perkins, Tracey Ullman (her category placement is weird) and Jane Krakowski. Krakowski definitely deserves a nod, but I fear she'll be passed over again, even though she had more screen time this season. Judy Davis is my completely-out-there guess, but I figure since she won last year for the same role in the mini-series/tv movie category, she has a decent shot at a nod this year.

Predictions for Tonight's Oscars

The Oscars finally come on tonight, and I should be a lot more excited than I am. I guess it's the expectation of the inevitable Slumdog steamroll. There has to be something exciting about it tonight - maybe Hugh Jackman's hosting. He better be singing and dancing up a storm. I know it would never happen, but I think he should also host part of the show shirtless. Ratings boost!
So, anyway, here's how I'm predicting the night might go:

Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Director: Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
Actor: Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Actress: Kate Winslet - The Reader
Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis - Doubt
Adapted Screenplay: Simon Beaufoy - Slumdog Millionaire
Original Screenplay: Dustin Lance Black - Milk
Cinematography: Anthony Dod Mantle - Slumdog Millionaire
Film Editing: Chris Dickens - Slumdog Millionaire
Art Direction: Donald Graham Burt & Victor J. Zolfo - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Costume Design: Michael O'Connor - The Duchess
Makeup: Greg Cannom - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Original Score: A.R. Rahman - Slumdog Millionaire
Original Song: "Down to Earth" - WALL-E
Sound Mixing: Ian Tapp, Richard Pryke, Resul Pookutty - Slumdog Millionaire
Sound Editing: Richard King - The Dark Knight
Visual Effects: Eric Barba, Steve Preeg, Burt Dalton, Craig Barron - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Foreign Language Film: The Class (France)
Animated Feature: WALL-E
Animated Short: Presto
Documentary Feature: Man on Wire
Documentary Short: Smile Pinki
Live Action Short: Spielzeugland (Toyland)

Independent Spirit Award Predictions

The Independent Spirit Awards are being held tonight, so I thought I'd have a go at trying to pick the winners. Usually the Spirits are awarded to the bigger stars/celebrities, and to films and performances that are also nominated for an Oscar. It's as if the voting body decides, "well the Academy probably won't give you the award tomorrow night, but we will!" Anyway here it goes:

Best Feature: The Wrestler
Best Director: Jonathan Demme - Rachel Getting Married
Best Male Lead: Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler
Best Female Lead: Melissa Leo - Frozen River
Best Supporting Male: James Franco - Milk
Best Supporting Female: Rosemarie Dewitt - Rachel Getting Married
Best Screenplay: Woody Allen - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Best First Feature: Synecdoche, New York
Best First Screenplay: Dustin Lance Black - Milk
Best Foreign Film: Gomorra
Best Documentary: Man on Wire
Best Cinematography: Harry Savides - Milk

Final Oscar Nomination Predictions

With Oscar nominations being announced on Thursday morning, here are final predictions. While the Best Picture lineup seems like a complete lock, there still remains a lot of unknowns. Aside from Rouke, Langella and Penn, who will be nominated for Best Actor? I think Pitt, Eastwood, Jenkins and DiCaprio are all still in the mix. Streep and Hathaway are the only two locks in Best Actress, so who gets the other nominations? Will Best Director match Best Picture 5 for 5, or will Mike Leigh or Darren Aronofsky get a lone director nod? What about Best Original Screenplay? Milk is really the only lock in that category, and there are about 8 other films jockeying for the other four slots. Just how big will the Slumdog Millionaire love be, and did Revolutionary Road gain any kind of traction? Will the Academy actually go for a superhero flick, and what about Gran Turino and its sudden huge popularity? All shall be revealed in two days time.

Picture:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

Director:
Darren Aronofsky - The Wrestler
Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan - The Dark Knight

Actor:
Clint Eastwood - Gran Turino
Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler

Actress:
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road

Supporting Actor:
Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey Jr. - Tropic Thunder
Phillip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Dev Patel - Slumdog Millionaire

Supporting Actress:
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis - Doubt
Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler
Kate Winslet - The Reader

Adapted Screenplay:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Original Screenplay:
Happy-Go-Lucky
Milk
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
WALL-E
The Wrestler

Cinematography:
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

Editing:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire

Art Direction:
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionaire

Costume Design:
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
The Other Boelyn Girl
Revolutionary Road

Make Up:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Reader
Tropic Thunder

Original Score:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E

Original Song:
"Down to Earth" - WALL-E
"Gran Turino" - Gran Turino
"Jaiho" - Slumdog Millionaire
"Once in a Lifetime" - Cadillac Records
"The Wrestler" - The Wrestler

Sound Mixing:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E

Sound Editing:
The Dark Knight
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Iron Man
Kung Fu Panda
WALL-E

Visual Effects:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Hellboy 2: The Golden Army
Iron Man

Animated Feature:
Kung Fu Panda
WALL-E
Waltz with Bashir

Guild Noms: Visual Effects

The Visual Effects Society (VES) announced their nominations today, and Iron Man was in the lead with 5 nominations. Now, there are a number of categories at the VES awards, but the one that is probably most representative of the Oscar Best Visual Effects category is Outstanding Visual Effects in an F/X Driven Movie. The five nominees are The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Cloverfield, Hellboy 2: The Golden Army, and Iron Man. Of those films, Iron Man and Benjamin Button seem like locks for Oscar nods, but what about the third nomination? Neither Prince Caspian or Cloverfield qualified in the bake-offs, so that leaves Hellboy 2. But will that really get a nomination? Australia, Journey to the Center of the Earth and The Dark Knight also qualified in the Oscar bake-offs, and The Dark Knight could receive the third nomination. The VES distinguishes between CGI/digital effects (Visual Effects) and in-camera effects (Special Effects), and Dark Knight was nominated in the Special Effects category. So, I don't know? I'm going to go with Hellboy 2, just because the Academy seems to really like their CGI, but watch The Dark Knight get the nod. If it did receive the nomination, though, it would be worthy.

Guild Noms: Costume Designers

The Costume Designers Guild handed out their noms earlier today, and somehow Slumdog Millionaire got a nomination. Really? Okay, yes i get it! You love the movie, but just because you love a film, does not mean it deserves to be nominated in every category. At this rate, come nomination morning, it'll rack up 14 nods. Well, not really; I don't see how it could get more than nine. The Academy will probably ignore it in the Costume and Art Direction categories. Anyway...... Australia is snubbed again. It's like the plague, no one wants to go near it. Even though Australia was a critical and box-office disappointment, I thought it would manage to pick up some nods. Memoirs of a Geisha anyone? I still believe it will show up somewhere at the Oscars - Cinematography, Costume, and Art Direction are all possible. The Golden Compass, was in the same place last year, and received two nominations, going on to win Best Visual Effects. So for the crew of Australia, keep hope alive. I also think the Academy will go for The Other Boleyn Girl, even though the CDG didn't. The Academy loves them some Sandy Powell, and really, who doesn't? Velvet Goldmine for life! Oh, and one last comment - How is Iron Man a Contemporary film, but The Dark Knight a Fantasy film? Eh.......?

Nominations:

Contemporary:
Iron Man - Laura Jean Shannon & Rebecca Bentjen
Mamma Mia! - Ann Roth
Sex and the City - Patricia Field
Slumdog Millionaire - Suttirat Larlarb
The Wrestler - Amy Westcott

Period:
Changeling - Deborah Hopper
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Jaqueline West
The Duchess - Michael O'Connor
Milk - Danny Glicker
Revolutionary Road - Albert Wolsky

Fantasy:
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian - Isis Mussenden
The Dark Knight - Lindy Hemming
The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor - Sanja Milkovic Hays

Guild Nominations: Editors

The American Cinema Editors announced their nominations announced their nominations yesterday, and, well, the five pictures nominated in the drama category are the same five films nominated by every other group. It's really becoming redundant. Have some imagination, people! Oy. I expect four of these five making it to an Oscar nomination, and the fifth slot going to a film that wasn't nominated here at all. My guess, Iron Man. Let me just add, how the hell did Mamma Mia! get a nomination in the comedy category? It's editing was horrible. Shouldn't editors know good editing. I mean really.

The Nominees:

Drama:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Angus Wall & Kirk Baxter
The Dark Knight - Lee Smith
Frost/Nixon - Mike Hill & Dan Stanley
Milk - Elliot Graham
Slumdog Millionaire - Chris Dickens

Comedy:
In Bruges - Jon Gregory
Mamma Mia! - Leslie Walker
Tropic Thunder - Greg Hayden
Vicky Cristina Barcelona - Alisa Lepselter
WALL-E - Stephen Schaffer

The Golden Globes

I did very well in my predictions, missing only the two lead actor categories. In Drama, I had predicted the award going to Sean Penn, but it went, in fact, to Mickey Rourke. I wasn't sure if the Hollywood Foreign Press would get behind him or just think the nomination was enough of a recognition. Rourke's acceptance speach was the best of the night, I believe, at least among the film winners. For a while there, I was worried that the TV stars were going to keep outdoing the movie stars, with their speaches. With regards to Actor in a Comedy/Musical, I highly doubt anyone predicted Colin Farrell. I had predcited Dustin Hoffman, since he's a respected actor, and they haven't awarded him in a while. My second guess would have been Bardem, because of continued love from last year and support of the Woody Allen film, and I thought Gleeson had a shot, since the group really liked the movie and he was a respected, British character actor. In no way did I think Farrell would win, even though a lot of people have been saying it's one of the best, if not the best, performaces he's ever given. I just thought that since he's no longer the it-boy, and it's too soon for a so-called "comeback," they would have passed him over, but I was wrong. I seriously need to In Bruges now. The other big shocker of the night was Kate Winslet winning both Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress. I'm guessing she's now a lock in both categories. A Supporting Actress Oscar nod for The Reader was pretty much expected, but the Best Actress nod for Revolutionary Road was kind of shaky. I'd now consider her the frontrunner for Supporting Actress, but Actress, on the other hand, is still completely up in the air. It's exciting. The Academy could surprise us, and throw us a shocker, by nominating her in Lead for The Reader, which would actually be the correct category placement. What would happen then? Also can everyone now accept that Slumdog Millionaire is now the frontrunner, and not the underdog. Seriously. Unless there's a huge shock, it's going to win Best Picture at the Oscars, so stop calling it an underdog!

The Winners:

Picture, Drama: Slumdog Millionaire

Picture, Comedy/Musical: Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Actor, Drama: Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler

Actor, Comedy/Musical: Colin Farrell - In Bruges

Actress, Drama: Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road

Actress, Comedy/Musical: Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky

Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight

Supporting Actress: Kate Winslet - The Reader

Director: Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire

Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire

Score: Slumdog Millionaire

Song: "The Wrestler" - The Wrestler

Foreign-language Film: Waltz with Bashir

Animated Film: WALL-E

P.S.: On a completely shallow note, can I just add something about Sting and Bruce Springsteen. For two men approaching sixty, they are damn hot. I'd still do either one of them, or both of them together. Now there's a fantasy!

Predicting the Globe Winners

The Golden Globes ceremony airs tomorrow night, and with its arrival, the awards season begins to become clearer. Which films have the necessary momentum to capture Oscar nods, and who are the frontrunners when it comes to the acting categories? Seriously! Who are the frontrunners? I mean, yeah, Heath Ledger is completely locked up for the Oscar in the Supporting Actor category, but the rest of the acting categories are still up in the air. So, here are my predicitons for tomorrow's ceremony.

Best Picture, Drama:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire. Its only real competition is Benjamin Button, but I think the Globes will want to award an international film and cheer on the "underdog." Slumdog will then steamroll its way to the eventual Oscar win, all the while being called the underdog.

Best Picture, Comedy/Musical:
Burn After Reading
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Mamma Mia!
Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Prediction: Vicky Cristina Barcelona. The category is interesting this year, as none of the nominees have a chance at a Best Picture Oscar nod, which actually makes it more fun. I'm going with Vicky, because I'm sure the Hollywood Foreign Press would like to award Woody Allen, since it has been a while. However, I wouldn't be surprised if they awarded it to Mamma Mia!, even though the movie was crap.

Best Actor, Drama:
Leonard DiCaprio - Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Bejamin Button
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler

Prediction: Sean Penn. He's in a biopic. He plays a homosexual. Cha-ching! Although, this was the only nomination the film got, so maybe there's not much support behind it. If Penn loses, expect Langella to pick it up. Afterall, he also plays a real life person, and one who is more famous than Harvey Milk. He just lacks the "brave" aspect of playing a homosexual.

Best Actress, Drama:
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Kristin Scott Thomas - I've Loved You So Long
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road

Predicitions: Eh...Meryl Streep? I'm ignoring all the online buzz about Hathaway having a star next to her name on the Globes' website, and going with Streep. I could just as easily see Winslet or Hathaway winning. The Best Actress category is so exciting this year. As of yet, no frontrunners have emerged. If Hathway does win this, I think she could take that title, since the Oscars do love their fresh young things in this category.

Best Actor, Comedy/Musical:
Javier Bardem - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Colin Farrell - In Bruges
Janes Franco - Pineapple Express
Brendan Gleeson - In Bruges
Dustin Hoffman - Last Chance Harvey

Predicitions: Dustin Hoffman. Like Best Picture, this category is fun, as none of the nominees have a real chance at an Oscar nod. I picked Hoffman by a process of elimination. No way are they awarding Pineapple Express an award. Gleeson isn't famous enough. Farrell is, well, Farell. So, that leaves Bardem and Hoffman. Hoffman has the long career, and Bardem was just awarded last year, therefore I'm giving it to Hoffman.

Best Actress, Comedy/Musical:
Rebecca Hall - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky
Frances McDormand - Burn After Reading
Meryl Streep - Mamma Mia!
Emma Thompson - Last Chance Harvey

Predictions: Sally Hawkins. Hawkins is the only one with a real chance at an Oscar nod. She's also got all the critics behind her. Now if Streep doesn't win in the Drama category, I think she might win here. She is Meryl Streep and "she's singing and dancing to ABBA, oh my god, me and my friends use to do that, oh my god, she's having so much fun, oh my god, I'm having so much fun, oh my god, she was in Sophie's Choice, oh my god, I love her!"

Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Best Supporting Actress: Kate Winslet - The Reader
Best Director: Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
Best Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Score: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Original Song: "The Wrestler" - The Wrestler
Best Foreign Film: Waltz with Bashir
Best Animated Film: WALL-E

Guild Noms: Art Directors Guild

Those wacky production designers gave us a couple of surprises. No love for either of the Kate Winslet period pieces (The Reader, Revolutionary Road), nor was their love for Baz Luhrmann's spectacle (Australia), but the guild did find room to honor the Eastwood, with nods to Changeling and...Gran Turino? Really? Eh. Anyway, I do love that they nominated WALL-E. Though the Oscars will never do so, the ADG does actually recognize the work of art directors/production designers within animated films. Art direction/production design isn't just about building sets. It's about conceptualizing and designing the world that exists within the film, and WALL-E deserves some recognition for the designs of the space cruise ship, the desolate, future Earth and WALL-E himself. Good job ADG! Looking ahead at the Oscars, I still think at least one film, which didn't receive an ADG nom, could make the Oscar short-list, even though the ADG recognized 15 films in total. Don't count out Australia and The Reader just yet, one of them could still make it.

The Nominees:

Period Films:
Changeling - James J. Murakami
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Donald Graham Burt
Doubt - David Gropman
Frost/Nixon - Michael Corenblith
Milk - Bill Groom

Fantasy Films:
The Dark Knight - Nathan Crowley
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of Crap - Guy Hendrix Dyax
Iron Man - J. Michael Riva
The Spiderwick Chronicles - James Bissell
WALL-E - Ralph Eggleston

Contemporary Films:
Burn After Reading - Jess Gonchor
Gran Turino - James J. Murakami
Quantum of Solace - Dennis Gassner
Slumdog Millionaire - Mark Digby
The Wrestler - Timothy Grimes

A Slumdog Orgy: The BFCA Winners

The BFCA awards were on last night, and I tuned in and out. They're really a boring awards show. For all the criticism the Oscars get for their overlong ceremony and unnecessary tributes and performances, at least they're exciting. The only really excitement came with the Best Actress category, where there was a tie between Anne Hathaway and Meryl Streep. I wish Streep had actually been there, as you know she would have given a great speach about having tied with her former Devil Wears Prada co-star. Anne Hathaway probably gave the best speach of the night. You just felt so happy for her. As for the rest of the awards, the BFCA went gaga over Slumdog Millionaire, bestowing it five of its honors. Apparently that's their prediction for the Best Picture prize at the Oscars, since predicting Oscar noms and wins appears to be their only purpose. With all the noms and wins, can people now stop refering to Slumdog as the underdog and the little film that could. It's the frontrunner; it's an awards juggernaut. The only film that has a serious chance at beating it is The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. Maybe The Dark Knight is an underdog for the prize, but I still doubt the Academy would go for a superhero film.

The Winners:
Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Director: Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
Actor: Sean Penn - Milk
Actress: Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married & Meryl Streep - Doubt (tie)
Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Supporting Actress: Kate Winslet - The Reader
Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire
Score: Slumdog Millionaire
Song: "The Wrestler" - The Wrestler
Ensemble: Milk
Younger Actor: Dev Patel - Slumdog Millionaire
Action Film: The Dark Knight
Comedy Film: Tropic Thunder
Animated Film: WALL-E
Foregin-language Film: Waltz with Bashir
Documentary: Man on Wire

Guild Noms: DGA

The Directors Guild announced their nominations yesterday and...zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz....huh, what? I'm sorry; I just fell asleep from reading the nominations. It's the same list as the PGA, and about every other group. No excitement. The DGA is often a better indication of the Best Picture lineup than of the Best Director lineup come Oscar time, so expect these five films to be the Best Picture nominees. I doubt, however, that all five of these directors will receive a nod. One of them will probably be left off, and while Ron Howard would make the most sense for a snub, I'm fearing it might be Gus Van Sant. If one of them is left off you can expect the fifth slot to go to either Mike Leigh for Happy-Go-Lucky or Darren Aronofsky for The Wrestler. I can't decide. Then again, this could be a year where the Best Picture and Director categories match up, or it could be like the past few years where a film, which is nominated by all the precursors and guilds, gets snubbed for Best Picture by the Academy, like Into the Wild and Dreamgirls. I'm hoping this is the case.

Guild Noms: Cinema Audio Society

The Cinema Audio Society, which represents the sound designers, released their noms today, and Slumdog Millionaire got a surprising nomination. The film has become something of a juggernaut, with every guild group bestowing it a nomination. I don't think it will translate into a nomination with the Academy, but I could be wrong. If Finding Neverland and Shakespeare in Love managed to receive nods, so could Slumdog. I also think Quantum of Solace could miss out on a nomination, since the Academy completely ignored Casino Royale, even though it was completely worthy of a few nominations...Daniel Craig, Best Actor nod, should have been. I expect The Curious Case of Benjamin Button to take its place come Oscar time, and if Slumdog doesn't show up, Indiana Jones will fill its seat. Although, with the new Indy movie missing a nod from the sound guild, and not making the cut for the Visual Effects bake-off, maybe the industry realizes what a crap movie Crystal Skulls was, and it won't receive any nominations, save for the inevitable John Williams score nod. Take that Lucas and Spielberg!!!

The Noms:
The Dark Knight - Ed Novick, Lora Hirschberg, Gary A. Rizzo
Iron Man - Mark Ulano, Christopher Boyes, Lora Hirschberg
Quantum of Solace - Chris Munro, Mike Prestwood Smith, Mark Taylor
Slumdog Millionaire - Resul Pookutty, Ian Tapp, Richard Pryke
WALL-E - Tom Meyers, Michael Semanick

Guild Nominations: Writers and Cinematographers

The Writers Guild and the American Society of Cinematographers announced their nominees today, with each group continuing the love-fests for Slumdog Millionaire, The Dark Knight and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. There were no real surprises with the ASC noms, but the Writers Guild shook things up within the Original Screenplay category. Rachel Getting Married, WALL-E, and Happy-Go-Lucky all failed to make an appearance. One could overlook the WALL-E snub, since it's an animated film with little dialogue, and the Happy-Go-Lucky snub, since its a British film and might not have qualified - I'm not exactly sure. There both probably safe for an Oscar nom, as Pixar has a good track record in the category, and I doubt the Academy would overlook a Mike Leigh film. The snub for Rachel Getting Married, however, indicates some trouble for the film's screenplay chances. Perhaps there is a growing support for The Wrestler, and that will take the fifth spot over Rachel. Although the Academy's writing branch does like dramadies, so maybe it still has a good shot, and WALL-E will be the film left off the final list. Who's to know; who's to know?

WGA:
Adapted Screenplay:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionaire

Original Screenplay:
Burn After Reading
Milk
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
The Visitor
The Wrestler

ASC:
The Curious Case of Bejamin Button - Claudio Miranda
The Dark Knight - Wally Pfister
The Reader - Chris Menges and Roger Deakins
Revolutionary Road - Roger Deakins
Slumdog Millionaire - Anthony Dod Mantle

Tech Bake-Offs: Best Makeup Category

The makeup category has been wittled down to seven films, and the only surprises within the bunch are the inclusion of The Wrestler and the exclusion of Prince Caspian, especially considering the first Narnia film won the prize. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button made the cut, which wasn't necessarily expected, as the makeup branch has weird and inconsistent rules about when CGI is used in conjunction with makeup. The Hours had previously been disqualified for using CGI, but then Star Wars: Return of the Sith qualified and got a nomination, so you never really know. However, since it did qualify, you can bet Benjamin Button will get the nomination and probably win. As for the other two nominations, I can see them going to any of the other films, except for The Wrestler, which I think falls into the same predicament Monster was in, where everyone ignores the makeup work and attributes it to the actor's performance. At least there's no travesties when it comes to this list, like in past years when Norbit and Click received nominations, but still the makeup branch refuses to go outside their comfort zone. It's all about prosthetics, and fat suits and aging effects. There's no recognition of period work or glamour, and let's not forget the makeup award also honors a film's hairstylist, but the branch always seems to forget this. I'm still insensed over the snub of Marie Antoinette two years ago, and its brilliant hair and wig styling. Hmph.

The Qualifiers:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Hellboy II: The Golden Army
The Reader
Synecdoche, New York
Tropic Thunder
The Wrestler

PGA Nominations - YAWN!!!

So begins the onslaught of the guilds handing out their nominations, with the Producers Guild starting us off today. Their nominees are, well, lacking any sort of excitement. I mean really! It's the same five films being recognized everytime. I thought their might have been some excitement added to the race, with WALL-E getting a nod from the guild, or maybe a bigger surprise with Revolutionary Road, The Wrestler, or Happy-Go-Lucky getting mentioned. Nope. None of that. No excitement here. Expect the same five films to be nominated for the Directors Guild Award, at which point we can be almost certain of the Oscar Best Picture line up.

Nominees:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Cean Chaffin, Kathleen Kennedy, Frank Marshall
The Dark Knight - Christopher Nolan, Charles Roven, Emma Thomas
Frost/Nixon - Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Brian Grazer, Ron Howard
Milk - Bruce Cohen, Dan Jinks, Michael London
Slumdog Millionaire - Christian Colson, Paul Ritchie