First Oscar Predictions of the Season

With Oscar season starting in a few months, it's time to start making some predictions. The expansion of the Best Picture category from five to ten nominees makes it more interesting to predict this year. Will it lead to more films from earlier in the year being nominated? I doubt it. It's still early in the year, since the "prestige" pictures don't start arriving until October, but as of right now, here's the direction I could see the Oscar nominations going.

Picture:
Amelia
Bright Star
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Invictus
The Last Station
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious
Shutter Island

Director:
Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
Lee Daniels - Precious
Clint Eastwood - Invictus
Peter Jackson - The Lovely Bones
Rob Marshall - Nine

Actor:
Javier Bardem - Biutiful
Paul Bettany - Creation
Daniel Day-Lewis - Nine
Morgan Freeman - Invictus
Christopher Plummer - The Last Station

Actress:
Abbie Cornish - Bright Star
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Saorise Ronan - The Lovely Bones
Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia
Hilary Swank - Amelia

Supporting Actor:
Matt Damon - Invictus
Richard Kind - A Serious Man
Alfred Molina - An Education
Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds

Supporting Actress:
Jennifer Connelly - Creation
Judi Dench - Nine
Helen Mirren - The Last Station
Mo'Nique - Precious
Rachel Weisz - The Lovely Bones

Adapted Screenplay:
An Education
Invictus
The Last Station
The Lovely Bones
Precious

Original Screenplay:
Biutiful
Bright Star
The Hurt Locker
A Serious Man
Up

Cinematography:
Amelia
Bright Star
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Shutter Island

Editing:
The Hurt Locker
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Shutter Island

Art Direction:
Invictus
Nine
Public Enemies
Shutter Island
The Tempest

Costume Design:
Amelia
Bright Star
Nine
Public Enemies
The Tempest

Make Up:
Sherlock Holmes
Star Trek
The Tempest

Original Score:
Avatar
Biutiful
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
Public Enemies
Up

Sound Mixing:
Avatar
A Christmas Carol
Invictus
Nine
Star Trek

Sound Editing:
Avatar
A Christmas Carol
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Up

Visual Effects:
Avatar
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
Star Trek

Animated Feature:
Coraline
Ponyo on the Cliff
Up