October Oscar Prediction

Since last month's predictions, The Last Station finally found a distributor, Inglourious Basterds did big at the box office, A Single Man drew high praise for Colin Firth and Julianne Moore, Bright Star opened to less than the rapturous applause it needed, people began talking about Up in the Air and Precious confirmed itself as the one to watch, thanks to a win at Toronto. With those occurences, here's how I think the Oscar nominations may be heading:

Picture:
Amelia
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglouious Basterds
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious
Up
Up in the Air

Director:
Lee Daniels - Precious
Clint Eastwood - Invictus
Peter Jackson - The Lovely Bones
Rob Marshall - Nine
Jason Reitman - Up in the Air

Actor:
George Clooney - Up in the Air
Daniel Day-Lewis - Nine
Colin Firth - A Single Man
Morgan Freeman - Invictus
Christopher Plummer - The Last Station

Actress:
Helen Mirren - The Last Station
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Gabourey Sidibe - Precious
Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia
Hilary Swank - Amelia

Supporting Actor:
Matt Damon - Invictus
Richard Kind - A Serious Man
Alfred Molina - An Education
Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds

Supporting Actress:
Marion Cotillard - Nine
Judi Dench - Nine
Vera Farmiga - Up in the Air
Mo'Nique - Precious
Julianne Moore - A Single Man

Adapted Screenplay:
An Education
Invictus
The Lovely Bone
Precious
Up in the Air

Original Screenplay:
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
The Tree of Life
Up

Cinematography:
Amelia
Bright Star
The Lovely Bones
Nine
The Tree of Life

Editing:
The Hurt Locker
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious

Art Direction:
Amelia
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Tree of Life

Costume Design:
Bright Star
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria

Make Up:
District 9
The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus
Star Trek

Original Score:
Amelia
Brothers
Public Enemies
The Tree of Life
Up

Sound Mixing:
Avatar
A Christmas Carol
Nine
Star Trek
Up

Sound Editing:
Avatar
A Christmas Carol
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

Visual Effects:
2012
Avatar
Star Trek

Animated Feature:
Coraline
Ponyo
Up

A New Month = New Oscar Predictions

Since my last predictions, the release dates for a number of potential contenders (The Wolf Man, Shutter Island, The Tempest) were pushed back to 2010, and the releas date for Terrence Malick's new feature, The Tree of Life was moved forward to this year. In addition, Tarantino's latest effort, Inglourious Basterds, has become a hit. Will that translate into multiple nominations for the film? Maybe. So far the only two locks for nominations are Up for Animated Feature and Meryl Streep in Julie & Julia for Best Actress, but that won't stop me from trying to predict these things.

Picture:
Amelia
Bright Star
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious
Up in the Air

Director:
Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
Lee Daniels - Precious
Clint Eastwood - Invictus
Peter Jackson - The Lovely Bones
Rob Marshall - Nine

Actor:
Javier Bardem - Biutiful
George Clooney - Up in the Air
Daniel Day-Lewis - Nine
Morgan Freeman - Invictus
Christopher Plummer - The Last Station

Actress:
Abbie Cornish - Bright Star
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Saorise Ronan - The Lovely Bones
Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia
Hilary Swank - Amelia

Supporting Actor:
Matt Damon - Invictus
Jude Law - Sherlock Holmes
Alfred Molina - An Education
Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds

Supporting Actress:
Marion Cotillard - Nine
Judi Dench - Nine
Helen Mirren - The Last Station
Mo'Nique - Precious
Susan Sarandon - The Lovely Bones

Adapted Screenplay:
An Education
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Precious
Up in the Air

Original Screenplay:
Biutiful
Bright Star
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Up

Cinematography:
Amelia
The Hurt Locker
The Lovely Bones
Nine
The Tree of Life

Editing:
The Hurt Locker
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Public Enemies

Art Direction:
Agora
Amelia
Invictus
Nine
Public Enemies

Costume Design:
Agora
Bright Star
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria

Make Up:
Inglouious Basterds
Sherlock Holmes
Star Trek

Original Score:
Bright Star
Brothers
The Lovely Bones
Public Enemies
Up

Sound Mixing:
Avatar
A Christmas Carol
Nine
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

Sound Editing:
Avatar
A Christmas Carol
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Up

Visual Effects:
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek

Animated Feature:
Coraline
Ponyo
Up

First Oscar Predictions of the Season

With Oscar season starting in a few months, it's time to start making some predictions. The expansion of the Best Picture category from five to ten nominees makes it more interesting to predict this year. Will it lead to more films from earlier in the year being nominated? I doubt it. It's still early in the year, since the "prestige" pictures don't start arriving until October, but as of right now, here's the direction I could see the Oscar nominations going.

Picture:
Amelia
Bright Star
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Invictus
The Last Station
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious
Shutter Island

Director:
Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
Lee Daniels - Precious
Clint Eastwood - Invictus
Peter Jackson - The Lovely Bones
Rob Marshall - Nine

Actor:
Javier Bardem - Biutiful
Paul Bettany - Creation
Daniel Day-Lewis - Nine
Morgan Freeman - Invictus
Christopher Plummer - The Last Station

Actress:
Abbie Cornish - Bright Star
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Saorise Ronan - The Lovely Bones
Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia
Hilary Swank - Amelia

Supporting Actor:
Matt Damon - Invictus
Richard Kind - A Serious Man
Alfred Molina - An Education
Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds

Supporting Actress:
Jennifer Connelly - Creation
Judi Dench - Nine
Helen Mirren - The Last Station
Mo'Nique - Precious
Rachel Weisz - The Lovely Bones

Adapted Screenplay:
An Education
Invictus
The Last Station
The Lovely Bones
Precious

Original Screenplay:
Biutiful
Bright Star
The Hurt Locker
A Serious Man
Up

Cinematography:
Amelia
Bright Star
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Shutter Island

Editing:
The Hurt Locker
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Shutter Island

Art Direction:
Invictus
Nine
Public Enemies
Shutter Island
The Tempest

Costume Design:
Amelia
Bright Star
Nine
Public Enemies
The Tempest

Make Up:
Sherlock Holmes
Star Trek
The Tempest

Original Score:
Avatar
Biutiful
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
Public Enemies
Up

Sound Mixing:
Avatar
A Christmas Carol
Invictus
Nine
Star Trek

Sound Editing:
Avatar
A Christmas Carol
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Up

Visual Effects:
Avatar
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
Star Trek

Animated Feature:
Coraline
Ponyo on the Cliff
Up

Sunday Blessings - Jeremy Renner

This week's Sunday Blessings is devoted to actor Jeremy Renner, currently starring in the Kathryn Bigelow directed, Iraq war film, The Hurt Locker. Renner may seem an odd choice; he's doesn't fit the standard of beauty - his face is kind of short, the eyes set wide apart -but it works on him, and I find the man rather sexy. He's also a few years older than he looks. While looking for info on Renner, I found he was 38 years of age, yet I would have sworn he wasn't a day over 30/31. I'm guessing it's the babyface that makes him seem younger. Anyway, the actor first made an impact in the film industry playing serial killer Jeffrey Dahmer in Dahmer, a film which I have yet to see, though everyone keeps telling me to do so. Following the performance he garnered supporting roles in S.W.A.T., North Country, The Assassination of Jesse James..., and 28 Weeks Later, and while I always seemed to notice him - "oh, hey it's that guy" - it wasn't until the "zombie" movie that he truly grabbed my attention. In the film Renner gave a better performance than required (true of most of the cast), and he came off far sexier than before. I'm guessing it was the short-cropped hair and military uniform that did it for me. Plus, I love a man who can handle a large weapon. Renner also recently starred in the ABC drama series The Unusuals, about a group of New York City cops, giving a great performance. It would be nice if Emmy voters gave him an Emmy nomination, but I can pretty much guarantee that won't happen, considering the series' lack of success. As for The Hurt Locker, the film is gathering much accolades and awards buzz, but it's still early in the year, so whether or not that translates into actual Oscar nods remains to be seen. At least the film's critical success will provide Renner with more opportunities in the industry. Well, one hopes as much. Amen.

What the What?

Yesterday, the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences announced, starting this year, the Academy Awards' Best Picture category would expand from five nominees to ten, an entirely unexpected surprise. The last time the Academy shook up the award categories, adding Best Animated Feature, there was a drawn out process. The category was suggested in 1999 (great year for animated movies), approved in 2000, and the first award was handed to Shrek in March of 02. While there must have been talks behind the scenes, the decision to go from five to ten Best Picture nominees appeared to come out of nowhere. A ten nominee field, while surprising, isn't unprecedented. For a period of time in the thirties and forties, the Academy experi The urge to expand must have arisen from the failure of The Dark Knight and WALL-E to score nods earlier this year. Both films were in the running, garnering enough precursors, but ultimately failed because they were genre pictures. Had one or both made the cut, the ceremony would likely have garnered higher ratings. It just came off as missed opportunity for the Academy, and I'm guessing they didn't want it to happen again. The move does increase the chances for a Best Picture nomination for Up, making it only the second animated film to garner a Best Picture nod, after Beauty and the Beast, and it brings some excitement to the race, as we don't know what to expect. However, I still remain cautious, because while we think this opens the race to more independent or foreign-language films, it more likely means getting more midbrow "prestige" pics that didn't have enough critics' support to break into the top five. Had the ruling been in 2005, Memoirs of a Geisha and Cinderella Man would have been nominated over the likes of A History of Violence and The New World.

It's Been One Week..

I haven't posted since before last Sunday's Oscar ceremony. Sorry. Marisa Tomei's gorgeous dress caught my attention, preventing me from accomplishing any tasks for a week. It's true! Well, not really. Anyway what did I think about the show? I liked it, aside from the Slumdog Millionaire sweep. I find sweeps in general boring - a movie cannot be the best in every category. Hugh Jackman was splendid as the host. Hopefully he'll be brought back nexy year. I enjoyed the storyline of the awards, showing the process of filmmaking from script to post-production, and I really liked the acting presentations, bringing out former winners in the category to present the current nominees. Best of the bunch was Shirley MacLaine discussing Anne Hathaway They should bring that part back again, but maybe shorten each of the introductions and include clips of the films. Just an idea.

Predictions for Tonight's Oscars

The Oscars finally come on tonight, and I should be a lot more excited than I am. I guess it's the expectation of the inevitable Slumdog steamroll. There has to be something exciting about it tonight - maybe Hugh Jackman's hosting. He better be singing and dancing up a storm. I know it would never happen, but I think he should also host part of the show shirtless. Ratings boost!
So, anyway, here's how I'm predicting the night might go:

Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Director: Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
Actor: Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Actress: Kate Winslet - The Reader
Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis - Doubt
Adapted Screenplay: Simon Beaufoy - Slumdog Millionaire
Original Screenplay: Dustin Lance Black - Milk
Cinematography: Anthony Dod Mantle - Slumdog Millionaire
Film Editing: Chris Dickens - Slumdog Millionaire
Art Direction: Donald Graham Burt & Victor J. Zolfo - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Costume Design: Michael O'Connor - The Duchess
Makeup: Greg Cannom - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Original Score: A.R. Rahman - Slumdog Millionaire
Original Song: "Down to Earth" - WALL-E
Sound Mixing: Ian Tapp, Richard Pryke, Resul Pookutty - Slumdog Millionaire
Sound Editing: Richard King - The Dark Knight
Visual Effects: Eric Barba, Steve Preeg, Burt Dalton, Craig Barron - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Foreign Language Film: The Class (France)
Animated Feature: WALL-E
Animated Short: Presto
Documentary Feature: Man on Wire
Documentary Short: Smile Pinki
Live Action Short: Spielzeugland (Toyland)

Independent Spirit Award Predictions

The Independent Spirit Awards are being held tonight, so I thought I'd have a go at trying to pick the winners. Usually the Spirits are awarded to the bigger stars/celebrities, and to films and performances that are also nominated for an Oscar. It's as if the voting body decides, "well the Academy probably won't give you the award tomorrow night, but we will!" Anyway here it goes:

Best Feature: The Wrestler
Best Director: Jonathan Demme - Rachel Getting Married
Best Male Lead: Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler
Best Female Lead: Melissa Leo - Frozen River
Best Supporting Male: James Franco - Milk
Best Supporting Female: Rosemarie Dewitt - Rachel Getting Married
Best Screenplay: Woody Allen - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Best First Feature: Synecdoche, New York
Best First Screenplay: Dustin Lance Black - Milk
Best Foreign Film: Gomorra
Best Documentary: Man on Wire
Best Cinematography: Harry Savides - Milk

BAFTA Winners

The Baftas were also held yesterday, and I completely forgot to watch the ceremony. I knew there was a big awards show this weekend, but I kept thinking it was just the Grammys. Not the case - dang it! Here are the winners:

Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Director: Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
Actor: Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler
Actress: Kate Winslet - The Reader
Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Adapted Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire
Original Screenplay: In Bruges
Cinematography: Slumdog Millionaire
Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
Production Design: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Costume Design: The Duchess
Make Up and Hair: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Score: Slumdog Millionaire
Sound: Slumdog Millionaire
Visual Effects: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Foreign Film: I've Loved You So Long
Animated Film: WALL-E
British Film: Man on Wire

I thought Slumdog Millionaire's momentum would have started to slow down. Guess not! At this rate, come Oscar time, it will probably sweep with at least eight trophys. That ceremony is going to be boring. Please Hugh Jackman salvage that show for us!

SAG Awards - "I Didn't Even Buy a Dress!"

Oh Meryl, you make everything more entertaining! By far the best thing about last night's Screen Actors Guild Awards was Meryl Streep's acceptance speech. Wit, sarcasm, over-the-top enthusiasm - it was all there. I particularly loved her shout out to co-star Viola Davis. "My God, would someone giver he a movie!" You gotta love Streep. The rest of the winners were predictable Heath Ledger wins Supporting Actor, Kate Winslet wins Supporting Actress, and Sean Penn wins Lead Actor. The big award of the night, Best Ensemble, went to... Slumdog Millionaire? Really? Ok seriously, no one should refer to this movie as an underdog ever again. It's a giant awards juggernaut! It will win the Oscar for Best Picture and probably have a decent sized sweep of the other categories. This awards season has become quite boring. Although I suppose the acting categories still have some excitement. With Kate Winslet out of the picture, who will win Supporting Actress? I really could see either Davis, Cruz, or Tomei winning the prize. Will they give the Best Actress to Winslet, or will Streep be the upset? Is Best Actor going to Rourke or Penn, or as I think Langella? Supporting Actor is the one acting category that seems like a complete lock, with Ledger winning, but if there's one awards group that would snub his performance, it's the Academy. If that happens, I'll feel really bad for the actor who does win it.

Oscar Nominations (continued)

Cinematography:
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Well I thought this is where Australia would make an appearance, with all its sunsets and landscapes, but it wasn't the case. DP Mandy Walker has a vagina, and apparently, the cinematography branch doesn't like those. I'm also surprised Revolutionary Road got snubbed, with Roger Deakins getting nominated for The Reader instead. I kept suspecting Changeling might get a nod, but not enough to change my predictions. I'm guessing this is one of the categories the Academy will award to Benjamin Button.

Film Editing:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

This category should have been easy to predict. 4 of the Best Picture films plus an action movie; in this case Iron Man. I thought Milk would be the Best Picture nominee to miss out, with waning support for the film. Of course The Dark Knight wasn't nominated for Picture, so that took the action film slot, and The Reader was the Best Picture nominee to miss out. I really didn't think Milk would have as much support as it did. Slumdog's ADD editing obviously wins this category.

Art Direction:
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Duchess
Revolutionary Road

Surprisingly, the Slumdog love didn't spill over into this category, and where did that Duchess nomination come from? Huh. I think they'll award this to Benjamin Button, just like cinematography.

Costume Design:
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
Milk
Revolutionary Road

No Sandy Powell. Seeing as how they love her, I thought the Academy would nominate The Other Boleyn Girl. Maybe a lot of people actually forgot the movie came out this year. I'm completely surprised by the Milk nomination, since they never actually go for 70s period wear. Also, yay for Catherine Martin getting nominated for Australia. I knew that film would show up somewhere! I could see this going to either The Duchess (very showy), Revolutionary Road (love for the designer), or Benjamin Button (tech sweep for the film).

Make-Up:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Hellboy 2: The Golden Army

All year I thought Hellboy would make it, because of residual love for Pan's Labyrinth, but in the last couple of weeks I second guessed myself. I shouldn't have. Will they actually award Benjamin Button, even though a lot of its effects are CGI? I'm not entirely sure.

Original Score:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Defiance
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E

Yeah, no John Williams nod for Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of Crap. Woopee!! I have no idea who will win this. Slumdog Millionaire?

Original Song:
"Down to Earth" - WALL-E
"Jaiho" - Slumdog Millionaire
"O Saya" - Slumdog Millionaire

No nomination for Springsteen's "The Wrestler." I really believe the music branch of the Academy is insane. I'm guessing the song suffered because it played over the end credits of The Wrestler, and for the past few years, the music branch has really only been nominating songs that play throughout the films. Even though I haven't heard the song yet, I'm delighted M.I.A. is now an Oscar nominee, for co-writing "O Saya." Now I'll get to see her perform at both the Grammys and the Oscars.

Sound Mixing:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E
Wanted

Sound Editing:
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E
Wanted

Who could have predicted the two nominations for Wanted? And Slumdog for Sound Editing? Really? Oy. My guess is either The Dark Knight or WALL-E will win both of these.

Visual Effects:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man

I think Benjamin Button takes this in a cake-walk. Although it could lose. Stranger things have happened at the Oscars.

Animated Feature:
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
WALL-E

Why did I change my preditions at the last minute? I knew Bolt would get in over Waltz with Bashir. It's more their style. Now I know this wouldn't completely be accurate because of branches voting independently of each other and different rules for different categories, but if Waltz with Bashir wins Best Foreign-language Film, it would appear that the Academy thinks Bolt is superior to any foreign-film from last year! That is hilarious.

Oscar Nominations

Picture:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

They didn't go for The Dark Knight, showing the one genre the Academy won't take a chance on, is the superhero movie. Fanboys everywhere must be screaming and crying. Believe me, you'll never hear the end of it, since it's "the greatest film in the history of cinema, ever, and if you don't think so, you're an idiot and an a**hole, Dark Knight rules!!!" In it's place is The Reader, so I suppose we should never again discount a Stephen Daldry film.

Director:
Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry - The Reader
David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant - Milk

A 5/5 match with Picture. Chris Nolan gets snubbed along with his film, and there's no surprise lone director nod for Aronofsky or Leigh. Boring. Daldry has directed only three films, and each one has garnered him an Oscar nod for Best Director. The other two films were The Hours and Billy Elliot.

Actor:
Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler

Yay! Eastwood didn't get nominated! This makes the race more interesting. Will it be Penn or Rourke who wins the award. I'm going to go out on a limb and say Langella gets the surprise win. He's a veteran actor, who has never previously been nominated, and he plays a famous person whom more people are familiar with than Harvey Milk. Plus Penn and Rourke might cancel each other out, with the same kind of voters divide between the two.

Actress:
Anne Hathway - Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Melissa Leo - Frozen River
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - The Reader

Wow. Winslet gets her nomination for The Reader in the correct category. Leo makes it in, but doesn't knock out Jolie to get the nomination. Instead, Hawkins is shut out of the race. I thought all the critics awards would have boosted her into the final five. I guess they didn't want to snub the Jolie two years in a row. It's surprising the two performances that won Best Actress at the Golden Globes weren't nominated - Hawkins and Winslet in Revolutionary Road. I think Winslet is a surer bet now for the win. Which is hilarious when you think back to her guest appearance on Ricky Gervais' Extras, and her monolgue about making a Holocaust film to win an Oscar.

Supporting Actor:
Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey Jr. - Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road

Shannon makes the cut, shutting out Dev Patel in the process. The Academy does love their crazy. The other four nominations were expected. It's nice to see them honor RDJ's comedic turn. Of course, Ledger will win this, though there is a little less certainty now, with The Dark Knight's Picture and Director snubs.

Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams - Doubt
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis - Doubt
Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benajmin Button
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler

With Winslet in Best Actress, there was enough room for both Adams and Henson to receive nominations. I didn't think Adams would get a nod, as I thought the Academy wouldn't give a film four acting nods, without nominating it for Best Picture., but I was wrong. This race is now exciting. Will the winner be Cruz or Davis, or will Tomei be a surprise underdog?

Adapted Screenplay:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

All expected. Slumdog will win. Duh.

Original Screenplay:
Frozen River
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Milk
WALL-E

Wow, this really was a ten film race. Out of those ten films, I thought Frozen River and In Bruges had the least chance, believing the Academy would more likely go with Vicky Cristina Barcelona, The Wrestler, The Visitor, Burn After Reading or Rachel Getting Married. Leo's performace is probably most responsible for the film getting a nod here. Milk seems like the obvious front-runner. If there is an upset, I'd guess it would be WALL-E pulling it off.

more about the tech nominations to come later...

Final Oscar Nomination Predictions

With Oscar nominations being announced on Thursday morning, here are final predictions. While the Best Picture lineup seems like a complete lock, there still remains a lot of unknowns. Aside from Rouke, Langella and Penn, who will be nominated for Best Actor? I think Pitt, Eastwood, Jenkins and DiCaprio are all still in the mix. Streep and Hathaway are the only two locks in Best Actress, so who gets the other nominations? Will Best Director match Best Picture 5 for 5, or will Mike Leigh or Darren Aronofsky get a lone director nod? What about Best Original Screenplay? Milk is really the only lock in that category, and there are about 8 other films jockeying for the other four slots. Just how big will the Slumdog Millionaire love be, and did Revolutionary Road gain any kind of traction? Will the Academy actually go for a superhero flick, and what about Gran Turino and its sudden huge popularity? All shall be revealed in two days time.

Picture:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

Director:
Darren Aronofsky - The Wrestler
Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan - The Dark Knight

Actor:
Clint Eastwood - Gran Turino
Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler

Actress:
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road

Supporting Actor:
Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey Jr. - Tropic Thunder
Phillip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Dev Patel - Slumdog Millionaire

Supporting Actress:
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis - Doubt
Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler
Kate Winslet - The Reader

Adapted Screenplay:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Original Screenplay:
Happy-Go-Lucky
Milk
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
WALL-E
The Wrestler

Cinematography:
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

Editing:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire

Art Direction:
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionaire

Costume Design:
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
The Other Boelyn Girl
Revolutionary Road

Make Up:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Reader
Tropic Thunder

Original Score:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E

Original Song:
"Down to Earth" - WALL-E
"Gran Turino" - Gran Turino
"Jaiho" - Slumdog Millionaire
"Once in a Lifetime" - Cadillac Records
"The Wrestler" - The Wrestler

Sound Mixing:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E

Sound Editing:
The Dark Knight
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Iron Man
Kung Fu Panda
WALL-E

Visual Effects:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Hellboy 2: The Golden Army
Iron Man

Animated Feature:
Kung Fu Panda
WALL-E
Waltz with Bashir

Guild Noms: Visual Effects

The Visual Effects Society (VES) announced their nominations today, and Iron Man was in the lead with 5 nominations. Now, there are a number of categories at the VES awards, but the one that is probably most representative of the Oscar Best Visual Effects category is Outstanding Visual Effects in an F/X Driven Movie. The five nominees are The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Cloverfield, Hellboy 2: The Golden Army, and Iron Man. Of those films, Iron Man and Benjamin Button seem like locks for Oscar nods, but what about the third nomination? Neither Prince Caspian or Cloverfield qualified in the bake-offs, so that leaves Hellboy 2. But will that really get a nomination? Australia, Journey to the Center of the Earth and The Dark Knight also qualified in the Oscar bake-offs, and The Dark Knight could receive the third nomination. The VES distinguishes between CGI/digital effects (Visual Effects) and in-camera effects (Special Effects), and Dark Knight was nominated in the Special Effects category. So, I don't know? I'm going to go with Hellboy 2, just because the Academy seems to really like their CGI, but watch The Dark Knight get the nod. If it did receive the nomination, though, it would be worthy.

BAFTA Noms...Excuse Me While I Puke

The BAFTA noms came out today and eh......ahhhhhhhhhhh......ehhhh? Slumdog Millionaire is everwhere with 11 nods, even in the acting categories, which every agrees is not their best asset. It was as if collectively the group went, "I love this movie so let me nominate it for everything, so everyone knows I love it! I LOVE SLUMDOG! YEAH!!!" Happy-Go-Lucky was completely snubbed. No Eddie Marsan, no Mike Leigh, no Sally Hawkins. You're a British film group, shouldn't you be honoring the best of British cinema. Happy was a respected film by a highly regarded British auteur and features what many consider to be one of the best performances of the year, and you completely ignore it. Mamma Mia! got an Outstanding British Film nomination over Happy-Go-Lucky! How? That movie was bad! AHHHHHH!
I'm done. Here are the noms:

Best Film:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Outstanding British Film:
Hunger
In Bruges
Mamma Mia!
Man on Wire
Slumdog Millionaire

Director:
Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire

Stephen Daldry - The Reader

Clint Eastwood - Changeling
David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon

Original Screenplay:
Burn After Reading
Changeling
I've Loved You So Long
In Bruges
Milk

Adapted Screenplay:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

Leading Actor:
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Dev Patel - Slumdog Millionaire
Sean Penn - Milk
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler

Leading Actress:
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Kristin Scott Thomas - I've Loved You So Long
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - The Reader
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road

Supporting Actor:
Robert Downey Jr. - Tropic Thunder
Brendan Gleeson - In Bruges
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Heath Ledger - The Dark Kngith
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams - Doubt
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Freida Pinto - Slumdog Millionaire
Tilda Swinton - Burn After Reading
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler

Music:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Mamma Mia!
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E

Cinematography:
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Editing:
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
In Bruges
Slumdog Millionaire

Production Design:
Changeling
The Curious Case of benjamin Button
The Dark Kngith
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

Costume Design:
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Duchess
Revolutionary Road

Sound:
Changeling
The Dark Kngith
Quantum of Solace
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E

Special Visual Effects:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skulls
Iron Man
Quantum of Solace

Make Up & Hair:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Duchess
Frost/Nixon
Milk

Guild Noms: Costume Designers

The Costume Designers Guild handed out their noms earlier today, and somehow Slumdog Millionaire got a nomination. Really? Okay, yes i get it! You love the movie, but just because you love a film, does not mean it deserves to be nominated in every category. At this rate, come nomination morning, it'll rack up 14 nods. Well, not really; I don't see how it could get more than nine. The Academy will probably ignore it in the Costume and Art Direction categories. Anyway...... Australia is snubbed again. It's like the plague, no one wants to go near it. Even though Australia was a critical and box-office disappointment, I thought it would manage to pick up some nods. Memoirs of a Geisha anyone? I still believe it will show up somewhere at the Oscars - Cinematography, Costume, and Art Direction are all possible. The Golden Compass, was in the same place last year, and received two nominations, going on to win Best Visual Effects. So for the crew of Australia, keep hope alive. I also think the Academy will go for The Other Boleyn Girl, even though the CDG didn't. The Academy loves them some Sandy Powell, and really, who doesn't? Velvet Goldmine for life! Oh, and one last comment - How is Iron Man a Contemporary film, but The Dark Knight a Fantasy film? Eh.......?

Nominations:

Contemporary:
Iron Man - Laura Jean Shannon & Rebecca Bentjen
Mamma Mia! - Ann Roth
Sex and the City - Patricia Field
Slumdog Millionaire - Suttirat Larlarb
The Wrestler - Amy Westcott

Period:
Changeling - Deborah Hopper
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Jaqueline West
The Duchess - Michael O'Connor
Milk - Danny Glicker
Revolutionary Road - Albert Wolsky

Fantasy:
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian - Isis Mussenden
The Dark Knight - Lindy Hemming
The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor - Sanja Milkovic Hays

Guild Nominations: Editors

The American Cinema Editors announced their nominations announced their nominations yesterday, and, well, the five pictures nominated in the drama category are the same five films nominated by every other group. It's really becoming redundant. Have some imagination, people! Oy. I expect four of these five making it to an Oscar nomination, and the fifth slot going to a film that wasn't nominated here at all. My guess, Iron Man. Let me just add, how the hell did Mamma Mia! get a nomination in the comedy category? It's editing was horrible. Shouldn't editors know good editing. I mean really.

The Nominees:

Drama:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Angus Wall & Kirk Baxter
The Dark Knight - Lee Smith
Frost/Nixon - Mike Hill & Dan Stanley
Milk - Elliot Graham
Slumdog Millionaire - Chris Dickens

Comedy:
In Bruges - Jon Gregory
Mamma Mia! - Leslie Walker
Tropic Thunder - Greg Hayden
Vicky Cristina Barcelona - Alisa Lepselter
WALL-E - Stephen Schaffer

The Golden Globes

I did very well in my predictions, missing only the two lead actor categories. In Drama, I had predicted the award going to Sean Penn, but it went, in fact, to Mickey Rourke. I wasn't sure if the Hollywood Foreign Press would get behind him or just think the nomination was enough of a recognition. Rourke's acceptance speach was the best of the night, I believe, at least among the film winners. For a while there, I was worried that the TV stars were going to keep outdoing the movie stars, with their speaches. With regards to Actor in a Comedy/Musical, I highly doubt anyone predicted Colin Farrell. I had predcited Dustin Hoffman, since he's a respected actor, and they haven't awarded him in a while. My second guess would have been Bardem, because of continued love from last year and support of the Woody Allen film, and I thought Gleeson had a shot, since the group really liked the movie and he was a respected, British character actor. In no way did I think Farrell would win, even though a lot of people have been saying it's one of the best, if not the best, performaces he's ever given. I just thought that since he's no longer the it-boy, and it's too soon for a so-called "comeback," they would have passed him over, but I was wrong. I seriously need to In Bruges now. The other big shocker of the night was Kate Winslet winning both Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress. I'm guessing she's now a lock in both categories. A Supporting Actress Oscar nod for The Reader was pretty much expected, but the Best Actress nod for Revolutionary Road was kind of shaky. I'd now consider her the frontrunner for Supporting Actress, but Actress, on the other hand, is still completely up in the air. It's exciting. The Academy could surprise us, and throw us a shocker, by nominating her in Lead for The Reader, which would actually be the correct category placement. What would happen then? Also can everyone now accept that Slumdog Millionaire is now the frontrunner, and not the underdog. Seriously. Unless there's a huge shock, it's going to win Best Picture at the Oscars, so stop calling it an underdog!

The Winners:

Picture, Drama: Slumdog Millionaire

Picture, Comedy/Musical: Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Actor, Drama: Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler

Actor, Comedy/Musical: Colin Farrell - In Bruges

Actress, Drama: Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road

Actress, Comedy/Musical: Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky

Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight

Supporting Actress: Kate Winslet - The Reader

Director: Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire

Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire

Score: Slumdog Millionaire

Song: "The Wrestler" - The Wrestler

Foreign-language Film: Waltz with Bashir

Animated Film: WALL-E

P.S.: On a completely shallow note, can I just add something about Sting and Bruce Springsteen. For two men approaching sixty, they are damn hot. I'd still do either one of them, or both of them together. Now there's a fantasy!

Predicting the Globe Winners

The Golden Globes ceremony airs tomorrow night, and with its arrival, the awards season begins to become clearer. Which films have the necessary momentum to capture Oscar nods, and who are the frontrunners when it comes to the acting categories? Seriously! Who are the frontrunners? I mean, yeah, Heath Ledger is completely locked up for the Oscar in the Supporting Actor category, but the rest of the acting categories are still up in the air. So, here are my predicitons for tomorrow's ceremony.

Best Picture, Drama:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire. Its only real competition is Benjamin Button, but I think the Globes will want to award an international film and cheer on the "underdog." Slumdog will then steamroll its way to the eventual Oscar win, all the while being called the underdog.

Best Picture, Comedy/Musical:
Burn After Reading
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Mamma Mia!
Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Prediction: Vicky Cristina Barcelona. The category is interesting this year, as none of the nominees have a chance at a Best Picture Oscar nod, which actually makes it more fun. I'm going with Vicky, because I'm sure the Hollywood Foreign Press would like to award Woody Allen, since it has been a while. However, I wouldn't be surprised if they awarded it to Mamma Mia!, even though the movie was crap.

Best Actor, Drama:
Leonard DiCaprio - Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Bejamin Button
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler

Prediction: Sean Penn. He's in a biopic. He plays a homosexual. Cha-ching! Although, this was the only nomination the film got, so maybe there's not much support behind it. If Penn loses, expect Langella to pick it up. Afterall, he also plays a real life person, and one who is more famous than Harvey Milk. He just lacks the "brave" aspect of playing a homosexual.

Best Actress, Drama:
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Kristin Scott Thomas - I've Loved You So Long
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road

Predicitions: Eh...Meryl Streep? I'm ignoring all the online buzz about Hathaway having a star next to her name on the Globes' website, and going with Streep. I could just as easily see Winslet or Hathaway winning. The Best Actress category is so exciting this year. As of yet, no frontrunners have emerged. If Hathway does win this, I think she could take that title, since the Oscars do love their fresh young things in this category.

Best Actor, Comedy/Musical:
Javier Bardem - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Colin Farrell - In Bruges
Janes Franco - Pineapple Express
Brendan Gleeson - In Bruges
Dustin Hoffman - Last Chance Harvey

Predicitions: Dustin Hoffman. Like Best Picture, this category is fun, as none of the nominees have a real chance at an Oscar nod. I picked Hoffman by a process of elimination. No way are they awarding Pineapple Express an award. Gleeson isn't famous enough. Farrell is, well, Farell. So, that leaves Bardem and Hoffman. Hoffman has the long career, and Bardem was just awarded last year, therefore I'm giving it to Hoffman.

Best Actress, Comedy/Musical:
Rebecca Hall - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky
Frances McDormand - Burn After Reading
Meryl Streep - Mamma Mia!
Emma Thompson - Last Chance Harvey

Predictions: Sally Hawkins. Hawkins is the only one with a real chance at an Oscar nod. She's also got all the critics behind her. Now if Streep doesn't win in the Drama category, I think she might win here. She is Meryl Streep and "she's singing and dancing to ABBA, oh my god, me and my friends use to do that, oh my god, she's having so much fun, oh my god, I'm having so much fun, oh my god, she was in Sophie's Choice, oh my god, I love her!"

Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Best Supporting Actress: Kate Winslet - The Reader
Best Director: Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
Best Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Score: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Original Song: "The Wrestler" - The Wrestler
Best Foreign Film: Waltz with Bashir
Best Animated Film: WALL-E

Guild Noms: Art Directors Guild

Those wacky production designers gave us a couple of surprises. No love for either of the Kate Winslet period pieces (The Reader, Revolutionary Road), nor was their love for Baz Luhrmann's spectacle (Australia), but the guild did find room to honor the Eastwood, with nods to Changeling and...Gran Turino? Really? Eh. Anyway, I do love that they nominated WALL-E. Though the Oscars will never do so, the ADG does actually recognize the work of art directors/production designers within animated films. Art direction/production design isn't just about building sets. It's about conceptualizing and designing the world that exists within the film, and WALL-E deserves some recognition for the designs of the space cruise ship, the desolate, future Earth and WALL-E himself. Good job ADG! Looking ahead at the Oscars, I still think at least one film, which didn't receive an ADG nom, could make the Oscar short-list, even though the ADG recognized 15 films in total. Don't count out Australia and The Reader just yet, one of them could still make it.

The Nominees:

Period Films:
Changeling - James J. Murakami
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Donald Graham Burt
Doubt - David Gropman
Frost/Nixon - Michael Corenblith
Milk - Bill Groom

Fantasy Films:
The Dark Knight - Nathan Crowley
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of Crap - Guy Hendrix Dyax
Iron Man - J. Michael Riva
The Spiderwick Chronicles - James Bissell
WALL-E - Ralph Eggleston

Contemporary Films:
Burn After Reading - Jess Gonchor
Gran Turino - James J. Murakami
Quantum of Solace - Dennis Gassner
Slumdog Millionaire - Mark Digby
The Wrestler - Timothy Grimes