October Oscar Prediction

Since last month's predictions, The Last Station finally found a distributor, Inglourious Basterds did big at the box office, A Single Man drew high praise for Colin Firth and Julianne Moore, Bright Star opened to less than the rapturous applause it needed, people began talking about Up in the Air and Precious confirmed itself as the one to watch, thanks to a win at Toronto. With those occurences, here's how I think the Oscar nominations may be heading:

Picture:
Amelia
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglouious Basterds
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious
Up
Up in the Air

Director:
Lee Daniels - Precious
Clint Eastwood - Invictus
Peter Jackson - The Lovely Bones
Rob Marshall - Nine
Jason Reitman - Up in the Air

Actor:
George Clooney - Up in the Air
Daniel Day-Lewis - Nine
Colin Firth - A Single Man
Morgan Freeman - Invictus
Christopher Plummer - The Last Station

Actress:
Helen Mirren - The Last Station
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Gabourey Sidibe - Precious
Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia
Hilary Swank - Amelia

Supporting Actor:
Matt Damon - Invictus
Richard Kind - A Serious Man
Alfred Molina - An Education
Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds

Supporting Actress:
Marion Cotillard - Nine
Judi Dench - Nine
Vera Farmiga - Up in the Air
Mo'Nique - Precious
Julianne Moore - A Single Man

Adapted Screenplay:
An Education
Invictus
The Lovely Bone
Precious
Up in the Air

Original Screenplay:
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
The Tree of Life
Up

Cinematography:
Amelia
Bright Star
The Lovely Bones
Nine
The Tree of Life

Editing:
The Hurt Locker
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious

Art Direction:
Amelia
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Tree of Life

Costume Design:
Bright Star
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria

Make Up:
District 9
The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus
Star Trek

Original Score:
Amelia
Brothers
Public Enemies
The Tree of Life
Up

Sound Mixing:
Avatar
A Christmas Carol
Nine
Star Trek
Up

Sound Editing:
Avatar
A Christmas Carol
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

Visual Effects:
2012
Avatar
Star Trek

Animated Feature:
Coraline
Ponyo
Up