Emmy Nomination Predictions

The nominations for the Emmy Awards are announced this Thursday morning (July 16th), so I though I'd give a try as guessing the nominees in the major series and acting categories. This year the categories have expanded to fit six nominees, which would suggest some surprises, but it's the Emmys, so the nominees will ultimately remain boring.

Drama Series:
24
Boston Legal
Damages
House
Lost
Mad Men

Essentially the same line-up as last year, except switching out Dexter for 24, which wasn't eligible last year. Most people are predicting True Blood to make the cut, but I have my doubts, seeing as it would have to jump the hurdles of being both a genre series and extremely gay. I consider both Breaking Bad and In Treatment as runners-up, which might take the place of either 24 or Lost.

Lead Actor, Drama:
Gabriel Byrne - In Treatment
Bryan Cranston - Breaking Bad
Jon Hamm - Mad Men
Michael C. Hall - Dexter
Hugh Laurie - House
James Spader - Boston Legal

I simply guessed the same group of men as last year, but of those men, I consider only Hamm and Hall to be locks. Michael Chiklis, Kiefer Sutherland and Simon Baker have just as much chance at getting nods as the other four men. I also wouldn't be completely shocked by a surprise sympathy nomination for Patrick Swayze.

Least Actress, Drama:
Patricia Arquette - Medium
Glenn Close - Damages
Mariska Hargitay - Law & Order: SVU
Holly Hunter - Saving Grace
Sally Field - Brothers & Sisters
Kyra Sedgwick - The Closer

Look, I'm happy for the fact television is providing middle-aged actresses with prominent roles, and the Emmys are willing to notice them, but can we get a better group of nominees. The two best leading lady performances were given by Mary McDonnell and January Jones, yet I fear both will go unrecognized. McDonnell's snub will sting the most, seeing as it will be the fifth year in a row she'll go unnominated for one of the best performances on television ever.

Supporting Actor, Drama:
Jeremy Davies - Lost
Michael Emerson - Lost
William Hurt - Damages
John Mahoney - In Treatment
William Shatner - Boston Legal
John Slattery - Mad Men

Rather than going for more interesting performances by lesser known actors - Aaron Paul, Lucian Msamati, Ryan Kwanten, Michael Cudlitz - the Emmy voters will likely go for bigger named stars. I'm pretty sure about all my guesses, except for Davies, who could just as easily be replaced with John Larroquette or Josh Holloway.

Supporting Actress, Drama:
Candice Bergen - Boston Legal
Marcia Gay Harden - Damages
Katherine Heigl - Grey's Anatomy
Sandra Oh - Grey's Anatomy
Dianne Wiest - In Treatment
Chandra Wilson - Grey's Anatomy

For the most part, this is a boring line-up, and as much as I like Oh and Wilson, I don't feel they should be nominated year after year. If one of these actresses were to be passed over, I fear it would be Harden, who actually gave the best supporting performance this past television season, but then, who would replace her - Hope Davis, Rachel Griffiths, Alison Bill, Cherry Jones, Jane Kaczmarek?

Comedy Series:
30 Rock
The Big Bang Theory
Entourage
How I Met Your Mother
The Office
Two and a Half Men

I highly doubt CBS will garner three nods in this category, but what are the other options? Pushing Daisies was ignored last year, despite a slew of other nominations, so I'm guessing it won't get a nod this year. The only other serious choices would be Flight of the Concords or a Desperate Housewives return, though it would be a total kick if the Emmy voters went outside the box and gave a nomination to something like Chuck or Parks & Recreation.

Lead Actor, Comedy:
Alec Baldwin - 30 Rock
Steve Carrell - The Office
Jim Parsons - The Big Bang Theory
Lee Pace - Pushing Daisies
Tony Shaloub - Monk
Charlie Sheen - Two and a Half Men

This category should to be a lot more fun than it is. Sheen and Shaloub again? I'm just hopin Pace can hold on to that nomination, and not be replaced by Johnny Galecki, which I believe might happen. I usually like Galecki, and loved him on Roseanne, but he seems to just get steam-rolled by the rest of the Big Bang cast. My biggest fear is one of the Entourage leading men making it into this category. That's scary just thinking about it.

Lead Actress, Comedy:
Christina Applegate - Samantha Who?
America Ferrara - Ugly Betty
Tina Fey - 30 Rock
Julia Louis-Dreyfus - The Old Adventures of New Christine
Mary-Louise Parker - Weeds
Amy Poehler - Parks & Recreation

A typical group of ladies, with the addition of Poehler for her first starring role. I wonder if Toni Collette might make an appearance, replacing Applegate or Ferrara. What about the Desperate Housewives? With a rejuvenated season (though, really only the first half seemed fresh) might one of them get a nod. If so, expect it to be Felicity Huffman, though Eva Longoria Parker was the real best-in-show. Plus, there's always Debra Messing waiting in the wings.

Supporting Actor, Comedy:
Jon Cryer - Two and a Half Men
Kevin Dillon - Entourage
Neil Patrick Harris - How I Met Your Mother
Tracy Morgan - 30 Rock
Jeremy Piven - Entourage
Rainn Wilson - The Office

It would be nice if John Krasinski finally got nominated, but I doubt it will ever happen, since he's the cute guy on the series. Actually do we even need this category, considering we all know Piven will win for the fourth time in a row? Piven can pretty much guarantee winning the award until either he takes his name out of submission (the respectable thing) or the show ends.

Supporting Actress, Comedy:
Judy Davis - The Starter Wife
Kristin Chenoweth - Pushing Daisies
Amy Poehler - Saturday Night Live
Jean Smart - Samantha Who?
Holland Taylor - Two and a Half Men
Vanessa Williams - Ugly Betty

This is probably the most wide open category with several serious contenders. Besides these women, you also have Conchata Ferrell, Jenna Fischer, Kristin Wiig, Dana Delaney, Swoozie Kurtz, Jaime Pressly, Elizabeth Perkins, Tracey Ullman (her category placement is weird) and Jane Krakowski. Krakowski definitely deserves a nod, but I fear she'll be passed over again, even though she had more screen time this season. Judy Davis is my completely-out-there guess, but I figure since she won last year for the same role in the mini-series/tv movie category, she has a decent shot at a nod this year.